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Daniel Schmachtenberger primarily studies the concept of "Metacrisis," which encapsulates the comprehensiveness of the risks faced by humanity and the Earth.

Daniel Schmachtenberger primarily studies the concept of "Metacrisis," which encapsulates the comprehensiveness of the risks faced by humanity and the Earth. This series will be divided into three parts: first, it will discuss what the Metacrisis is and how to create a third attractor to address it; then it will discuss the standards for addressing the Metacrisis; and finally, it will explore topics related to Web 3.0, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs, and more. This episode is the first in a series of episodes in collaboration with Daniel, delving into the Metacrisis and how we can best respond to it.

Daniel Schmachtenberger is a systems thinker with extensive experience across fields such as game theory, political science, history, economics, and social sciences. He will discuss the systemic risks faced by humanity, including the root causes of global coordination failures. Daniel is a founding member of the Consilience Project, which aims to improve public understanding and dialogue, particularly regarding systemic risks.

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Prerequisite Knowledge: Beck's Risk Society Theory#

Social Stages: Class Society and Risk Society

• Class society, or classical industrial society, centers around wealth production.

• Risk society centers around risk distribution.

Logic of Social Operation: Wealth Distribution and Risk Distribution

• Wealth distribution: The logic of operation in class society is to liberate people from nature, focusing on how to distribute wealth in an unequal yet "legitimate" manner, with a desire for scarce goods; wealth accumulates in the upper class, and wealth determines thought.

• Risk distribution: The logic of operation in risk society is to mitigate and channel risks, focusing on technology-production itself, as modernity gradually becomes a force of self-destruction; people want to deal with negative impacts, and risks accumulate in the lower class, with knowledge determining risk status.

Value System: Inequality and Insecurity

• Inequality: In class society, people actively pursue equality and the abundance of material wealth.

• Insecurity: In risk society, people passively defend against risks, leading to anxiety and self-limitation.

Nature of Risks

• Dangers are natural disasters, while risks are human-made and closely related to systems.

• In class society, risks are limited, perceivable, and calculable, belonging to residual risks, adhering to the "polluter pays principle."

• In risk society, risks are global, imperceptible, and incalculable, occupying a central position, gradually forming "organized irresponsibility."

Understanding the Metacrisis#

Metacrisis#

The Metacrisis is a comprehensive crisis that includes climate change, ecosystem collapse, technological threats (such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology), and global supply chain vulnerabilities. It is an aggregation of a series of global risks and issues. The complexity of the Metacrisis means that addressing single issues like climate change is insufficient. These issues share common underlying patterns, necessitating consideration of the fundamental generative mechanisms behind them, such as multipolar traps, game theory, and the tragedy of the commons. Addressing the Metacrisis cannot be done by solving each problem in isolation; instead, it requires thinking about how to coordinate humanity's actions to tackle shared challenges.

Third Attractor#

"Attractor" refers to a general direction that a complex system tends to move towards, even if its exact path cannot be accurately predicted. This is akin to observing a basin in geography, where raindrops may flow along different paths but ultimately converge into a specific lake.

Today, there are two high-level attractors in the world: catastrophe and repressive control structures. Catastrophes refer to collective disasters caused by failures of decentralized collective action, including climate issues, leading to various problems stemming from coordination failures. The ability to disperse disasters is easily obtained, which increases overall risk. To prevent threats, large-scale monitoring and control are needed; however, excessive surveillance and control may lead to repressive control structures that threaten individual freedoms. Therefore, when creating a world that can avoid disasters and has self-monitoring mechanisms, it is essential to consider trade-offs and checks and balances.

"The third attractor" discusses creating a world that is neither catastrophic nor repressive, avoiding disasters while ensuring that regulatory structures have internal checks and balances to prevent corruption. The "third attractor" represents the ideal world people hope to create, avoiding potential disasters while protecting individual freedoms.

Multipolar Trap#

Coordination failure is essentially a form of multipolar trap, where multiple agents, each acting according to their own rational self-interest, lead to outcomes that are harmful to everyone in the long run. However, individual agents cannot make the best long-term choices. Difficulties arise when trying to enforce international agreements to prevent these global coordination failures, as there is no effective international enforcement body. Therefore, law and central coordination play a crucial role in addressing coordination failures.

Metacrisis Matrix#

Understanding the Metacrisis through a matrix that describes problems and solutions. Define two typological classification criteria: the ability to solve coordination failures and the degree of centralization and corruption of government and monitoring systems. The Metacrisis is a state hanging between disaster and oppression.

• Weak solving ability - weak monitoring system: Fails to adequately address coordination failures, leading to disaster due to decentralization or laissez-faire.

• Weak solving ability - strong monitoring system: The current situation, where neither coordination failures are resolved nor a centralized system exists.

• Strong solving ability - strong monitoring system: Resolves coordination failures, but centralized and corrupt governments and monitoring systems lead to oppression.

• Strong solving ability - weak monitoring system: Resolves coordination failures without a centralized or corrupt system, which is the "third attractor" we hope to achieve.

Breaking the Metacrisis#

Path Mechanism#

Addressing disasters or oppression may trigger unintended consequences. Attempting to solve disasters may lead to more oppression, while trying to address oppression may result in more disasters. The interconnections and complexities between problems make solutions more complicated, as multiple factors need to be considered to ensure that solving one problem does not trigger another. For example, the relationship between global GDP growth and energy use and climate change, the interdependence of issues, and the need to consider multiple areas to find feasible solutions.

How do we face this crisis? One approach is to view problems as instances of deeper patterns rather than isolated issues. This helps us understand the common patterns between problems and how addressing these deeper patterns can impact different areas. By identifying and addressing these deeper patterns, we can take steps toward solving the overall problem, even though it remains a daunting task.

Using Mandatory Transparency as an Example#

Using mandatory transparency as an example, we can understand how to leverage technology to address some global issues and how to change the direction of technology to build a more feasible third attractor. For instance, satellite imaging technology can provide real-time images of the Earth's surface, helping to reveal illegal activities such as illegal fishing, logging, and mining, thereby promoting the establishment and enforcement of international agreements. This transparency helps improve the situation of multipolar traps by providing more information, making coordination and cooperation possible. Taking blockchain technology as an example, it emphasizes the importance of transparency, thereby promoting global collaboration. Blockchain can provide more transparency, reduce corruption and distrust, and thus provide a greater foundation of trust. Thus, technology can become part of the solution to global problems, and changing the direction of technology can significantly promote cooperation and coordination.

A Qualitative World Belonging to Humanity#

Human nature is what can inspire hope; the world needs collective solutions to the Metacrisis. We have the potential to improve the world, readjust our use of technology and artificial intelligence, empower humanity, and create a "race to the top." To achieve this, we need to redefine the role belonging to humanity, allowing artificial intelligence to support more conventional and quantitative tasks, enabling individuals to lead meaningful and fulfilling lives.

A high-resolution democratic vision. With the support of technology, there is hope for achieving wiser and more collaborative decision-making on a global scale. Artificial intelligence helps expand the capacity for collective wisdom while retaining bottom-up decision-making processes, which is an exciting prospect. Humanity collaborates meaningfully through technology, utilizing their collective wisdom, empathy, and creativity to shape a more equitable and sustainable world.

Things That Bring Hope#

Assessing real politics is crucial. Developmental psychology indicates that cognitive and moral abilities exist at different developmental levels across the population, which can be promoted through technology, economic systems, and educational systems. The Gaussian distribution of violence and rationality can change through alterations in social structures. Technology, especially social media algorithms like Facebook's, can play a significant role in cultural development. If these algorithms are designed to correct biases and expand interpersonal networks, they could rapidly propel a cultural enlightenment movement, faster than at any previous time.

Technology, Humanity, Hope, Faith#

The comprehensive use of technology along with its regulation, incentive mechanisms, etc., can have profound effects. At the same time, human nature has great plasticity and potential, which can be enhanced through technology, culture, and other means, rather than being confined to its inherent state.

Regarding faith and hope, even without religious beliefs, people need a special type of faith that signifies not knowing what the solution is but believing that there may be pathways to solving problems within the unknown factors. This faith encourages people to learn and innovate while avoiding the false certainties of catastrophism, as unknown factors may contain solutions we do not yet understand.

Innovation is necessary, and it requires steadfast faith and commitment to continually strive to solve problems.

Optimism and Pessimism#

From an optimistic perspective, it is associated with problem-solving and unknown factors. One must commit to making efforts to solve problems, even without knowing how to do so. This optimism suggests that solutions exist in the unknown realm, and there is a moral responsibility to address this issue. This means that even without knowing how to proceed, one should commit to and strive to solve the problem without easily giving up. This commitment indicates that even in failure, one will continue to seek new methods rather than abandon the effort. This is the most likely way to achieve success, even if one can face failure with equanimity.

From a pessimistic perspective, it is used for red teaming specific propositions. (Note: Red teaming refers to conducting penetration testing, social engineering, and open-source intelligence research in a comprehensive attack simulation to assess risks and patch vulnerabilities from an overall perspective.) The concept of red teaming is to scrutinize one's ideas with pessimistic thinking. Pessimism serves to more effectively realize optimism. Its role is to identify problems so that they can be recognized and improved before failure occurs, rather than discovering issues after investing significant time and money.

Efforts should be made to strike a balance between optimism and pessimism, using red teaming methods to enhance the quality of problem-solving. This is an internal, self-learning process as well as a team process that should occur within groups. Optimism should be combined with problem-solving and unknown factors, while pessimism should be applied to red teaming specific propositions; this process is both internal to individuals and between teams.

People in the community should not only conduct red teaming from a cryptographic perspective but also assess whether actions are wise and whether they may trigger problems elsewhere. This approach helps design more robust and inclusive solutions. People should not fear hearing about problems or negative feedback, as this helps improve designs and avoid potential issues.

[1] Beck U. & Ritter M. (1992). Risk society: towards a new modernity. Sage Publications.

[2] Daniel Schmachtenberger: https://civilizationemerging.com/about/

[3] Meditations on Moloch: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

[4] Daniel's extended blog: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/daniel-schmachtenberger-bend-not-break-2-maximum-power/id1604218333?i=1000563793660

[5] Consilience Project: https://consilienceproject.org/

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